Article 7319
Title of the article |
ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF THE RESIDUAL RESOURCE BASED ON THE RESULTS OF BINOMIAL TESTS THAT DID NOT GIVE UP |
Authors |
Yurkov Nikolay Kondrat'evich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, head of sub-department of radio equipment design and production, Penza State University (440026, 40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), E-mail: yurkov_NK@mail.ru |
Index UDK |
519.248:62-192 |
DOI |
10.21685/2307-4205-2019-3-7 |
Abstract |
Background. For unrecoverable complex products, the GPR does not exceed the minimum operating time of any EREs that make up this complex product, and the probability γ is usually chosen in the range from 0.95 to 0.999. Such a choice of probability values distinguishes the time period of use of the product into intervals, where the initial interval is limited by the value of the gamma-percentage resource (γ≥0.95). This distinction suggests that within this initial interval (15–25 years), the reliability model of unrecoverable complex products is within the influence of an exponential law. This fact allows making predictions of the residual gammapercentage resource of unrecoverable complex products within the established limits (≤25 years). The aim of the work is to find an estimate of the residual gammapercentage resource – within the constraints imposed on the use of the resource, which will be simpler and more efficient than the traditional and inferior to a slightly effective estimate of the residual gamma-percentage resource, if it exists, from the point of view proximity to the true value when using the binomial test plan. And also, based on the results of the extended operation, on the basis of the obtained effective estimate of the residual gamma-percentage resource, obtain a formula for estimating the values of the predicted values of the residual gamma-percentage resource, within the limits of the constraints. |
Key words |
gamma-percent life, exponential distribution, test plan, point estimation, residual gamma-percentile operating life |
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Дата обновления: 01.11.2019 13:48